Inflation to Average 18.8% in 2025 – Fitch Solutions
Inflation in Ghana is expected to decline from an average of 22.9% in 2024 to 18.8% in 2025, according to a new forecast by Fitch Solutions. The UK-based research firm attributes this moderation to falling global oil prices, which are likely to give the National Petroleum Authority room to limit increases in, or even reduce, fuel prices at the pump.
Fitch Solutions noted that easing inflation will reinforce household consumption, which it identifies as the primary driver of economic growth in the coming quarters.
“Household consumption will remain the engine of economic growth in the coming quarters as inflationary pressures ease,” the report stated. “We forecast inflation will moderate from an average of 22.9% in 2024 to 18.8% in 2025, supported by lower global oil prices.”
The firm also highlighted that better agricultural supply chains will help reduce the prices of essential imported food items such as wheat and rice. This, combined with strong gold prices that are expected to strengthen the Bank of Ghana’s foreign reserves, will support the cedi and contribute to exchange rate stability, further containing inflation driven by imports.
These developments are projected to relieve pressure on household budgets, enabling private consumption to grow by 4.0% in 2025 and contribute 3.2 percentage points to the country’s overall economic growth.
Inflation Expected to Fall Further in 2026
Looking ahead, Fitch Solutions forecasts inflation to ease further to an average of 15.2% in 2026, a trend expected to further stimulate consumer activity.
Ghana’s ongoing Extended Credit Facility arrangement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is set to end in May 2026. According to Fitch Solutions, the conclusion of such programmes has historically led to a loosening of fiscal policy, which in turn boosts domestic demand.
Citing past trends, the report noted that after the previous IMF programme ended in 2019, Ghana’s budget deficit increased from 3.4% of GDP in 2018 to 4.1% in 2019, contributing to a rise in domestic demand growth from 5.7% to 7.3%.
